Each row is a prediction, then the result the named paper reported. Nothing here was recalculated. Where an abstract prints no sample size, no percentage, or no lifespan in days, none is added.
Accumulation · supported as a correlationPrediction. Oxidative damage increases with age. Result. Mecocci, Hamilton, and Van Remmen, as on the previous figure, found increases in the markers and tissues they measured. Sohal and Weindruch had already listed the increase as support. The cause is not settled by a correlation with age.
Mitochondrial catalase · supported in that mousePrediction. Less hydrogen peroxide inside mitochondria lengthens life. Result. Schriner and colleagues, 2005. Human catalase in the peroxisome, the nucleus, or the mitochondria. Median and maximum lifespans were maximally increased in the mitochondria-targeted animals: averages of 5 months and 5.5 months. Cardiac pathology and cataract were delayed, oxidative damage fell, hydrogen peroxide production and hydrogen-peroxide inactivation of aconitase were attenuated, and mitochondrial deletions developed less. The abstract does not print the other two lifespans, and it does not give the median they started from, so 5 months is not turned into a percentage here.
Mitochondrial mutations · the phenotype is real, the oxidative step is notPrediction. Mitochondrial DNA mutations should age a mouse early, and, if free radicals are the path, oxidative damage should rise with them. Result. Trifunovic and colleagues, 2004. Proofreading-deficient PolgA. A three- to fivefold rise in point mutations, more deleted mitochondrial DNA, a reduced lifespan, and early weight loss, less subcutaneous fat, hair loss, spine curvature, osteoporosis, anaemia, reduced fertility, and heart enlargement. Kujoth and colleagues, 2005, the same kind of polymerase: accelerated-aging features, not associated with increased markers of oxidative stress, correlated with apoptosis instead, especially in tissues that turn over quickly. Do not paste Kujoth's oxidative-stress result onto Trifunovic. Trifunovic's abstract does not report it.
Species · direction yes, phylogeny-controlled regression noPrediction. Longer-lived species produce less mitochondrial reactive oxygen species. Result. Lambert and colleagues, 2007, hydrogen peroxide from isolated heart mitochondria. The abstract's species are mouse, rat, white-footed mouse, naked mole-rat, Damara mole-rat, guinea pig, baboon, little brown bat, Brazilian free-tailed bat, ox, pigeon, quail. Rates during succinate oxidation were generally lower in the longer-lived species, at complex I during reverse electron transport. Maximum lifespan correlated negatively with that production, and more so after body mass was removed. After phylogeny was removed, the inverse association was significant by a sign test and fell short of significance by regression. No correlation coefficient is in the abstract.
Naked mole-rat · not the predictionPrediction. A very long life should come with low oxidative damage, or with strong antioxidants. Result. Andziak and colleagues, Aging Cell, 2006: maximum lifespan greater than 28.3 years, an order of magnitude longer than body size predicts. Against similar-sized mice: 10-fold higher in vivo lipid peroxidation, accrued lipid damage twofold, DNA about two to eight times, proteins 1.5 to 2-fold, versus physiologically age-matched mice, and equal to same-aged mice. Andziak and Buffenstein, the same year: mouse maximum lifespan about 3.5 years. Young mole-rats were already at least twofold higher in lipid peroxidation and iron, P < 0.005. Old mice had twice the accrued damage of young mice. Mole-rat urinary isoprostanes fell by half with age, P < 0.001, and lipid damage did not change with age. Andziak, O'Connor, and Buffenstein, 2005: survival greater than 28 years, eight times the similar-sized mouse. Liver cellular glutathione peroxidase 70 times lower, p < 0.0001, mole-rats at 30, 75, 130 months against mice at 4, 12, 18 months. Lambert's list includes the naked mole-rat, and that paper measured hydrogen peroxide production, not this tissue damage.
Antioxidant genes · the simple prediction failsPrediction. Less superoxide dismutase shortens life. Result. Van Remmen and colleagues, 2003. Sod2 heterozygotes, 50 percent of manganese superoxide dismutase in every tissue, for life. At 26 months, nuclear 8-oxodG was 15 percent higher in heart to over 60 percent higher in liver. Mitochondrial DNA from liver and brain was also higher. The number of old mice with a tumor was 100 percent higher. Mean and maximum survival were identical. Pérez and colleagues, 2009: of 18 genetic manipulations in their laboratory, only Sod1 deletion affected lifespan, about a 30 percent shorter mean, median, and maximum. They say it is uncertain whether that is accelerated aging or novel pathology, including hepatocellular carcinoma never observed in their C57BL/6 account. Van Raamsdonk and Hekimi, 2009: none of the 5 worm sod deletions shortened life. sod-2 deletion extended it. The abstract does not print how many days that single mutant gained. Deleting sod-2 in clk-1 worms increased mean lifespan by 15 days. Deleting it in isp-1 worms decreased lifespan by 25 days. Those days are the double mutants. Van Raamsdonk and Hekimi, 2012: worms with no superoxide dismutase left, sod-12345, are viable and have a normal lifespan.
Antioxidant supplements · no benefit, and harm in the low-bias trialsPrediction. Antioxidant pills lower mortality. JAMA, 2007. 68 trials, 232,606 participants, searched to October 2005. All trials together, relative risk 1.02, interval 0.98 to 1.06, not significant. 47 low-bias trials, 180,938 participants, relative risk 1.05, interval 1.02 to 1.08. Beta-carotene, vitamin A, and vitamin E, after selenium trials were excluded, are the three rows. Vitamin C and selenium had no significant effect in that abstract, and it prints no relative risk for that vitamin C sentence.
| Analysis | Relative risk | 95 percent interval |
|---|
| All trials together | 1.02 | 0.98 to 1.06 |
| Low-bias trials | 1.05 | 1.02 to 1.08 |
| Beta-carotene | 1.07 | 1.02 to 1.11 |
| Vitamin A | 1.16 | 1.10 to 1.24 |
| Vitamin E | 1.04 | 1.01 to 1.07 |
Cochrane, 2008, then the 2012 update. The 2008 review is not a 2007 paper. 67 trials, 232,550 participants. Low-bias relative risk 1.05, interval 1.02 to 1.08. Close to the JAMA tally, and not the same tally. The 2012 update searched to February 2011. 78 trials, 296,707 participants. 56 low-bias trials, 244,056 participants. Mean age 63, range 18 to 103. Random-effects relative risk 1.02, interval 0.98 to 1.05, not significant. Fixed-effect 1.03, interval 1.01 to 1.05. I-squared 12 percent. Low-bias relative risk 1.04, interval 1.01 to 1.07. The authors found no evidence to support the supplements. Beta-carotene and vitamin E seemed to increase mortality, and so may higher doses of vitamin A. The dose meta-regression for vitamin A was relative risk 1.0006, interval 1.0002 to 1.001, P = 0.002.
| Analysis | Trials | Relative risk | 95 percent interval | Abstract |
|---|
| Beta-carotene | 26 | 1.05 | 1.01 to 1.09 | increased |
| Vitamin E | 46 | 1.03 | 1.00 to 1.05 | increased |
| Vitamin A | 12 | 1.07 | 0.97 to 1.18 | not significant |
| Vitamin C | 29 | 1.02 | 0.98 to 1.07 | not significant |
| Selenium | 17 | 0.97 | 0.91 to 1.03 | not significant |